Hard 30 – Tiers of the Phoenixborn: The Phoenixborn
In Ashes there are winners and there are losers. The whole concept of the game is that there will be one phoenixborn that will stand alone as champion highlander style. Assumingly upon the pile of lesser challengers with tears streaming from their eyes as they curse the chimera. But, how do you get the measure of a post apocalyptic magic slinger?
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Statistics, Guesswork, and Some Trinaries
The first thing I had to do was get some easy comparable numbers. Each phoenixborn is made up of three things; the raw stats, an ability, and a signature card. The raw stats of a phoenixborn are readily apparent; battlefield, life, and spell board. Abilities and the signature card took some work.
The Primordial Goo of Numbers
At first I thought it would be a simple matter of assigning a value to each point in each category. Half a point per battlefield and two per spell book. For life I simply put the remaining number above 15. But, someone illuminated me to binaries and trinaries, etc*. The idea is creating an acceptable range and assigning a value to that range.
The difference between a battlefield of five or six is negligible. I often check to see if an opponent’s battlefield is above seven. The reason I do that is because I often play battlefields of four and I feel I can reasonably account for 1.5 more units than my own. Anything more than that is outside of my capabilities without specific area of effect cards.
Taking that into account I value a battlefield of four a one, five to six a three since that is average, and anything seven and above is a perfect five. Is there an appreciable difference between eight or ten units? I don’t think so. While my Gates Thrown Open Koji deck may argue against these numbers I have yet to witness a notable difference.
Ready spell slots operate in a similar fashion. Since everyone has at least three books available I wanted to show the power difference between having three, four, or five. There is a big difference between three and four books. I have yet to see any build fully utilize five but I recognize that having five is better than having four.
| Range | Stat | Value | |
| Battlefield | 4-10 | 4 | 1 |
| 5-6 | 3 | ||
| 7-10 | 5 | ||
| Life | 15-20 | 1/>15 | 0-5 |
| Ready Spells | 3-5 | 3 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | ||
| 5 | 5 |
Scaling Abilities, It Matters
I am open to admitting my first swing at measuring abilities AND signatures wasn’t very…scientific. I just went through each one and rated it 1-10 as I saw fit. Good ole’ gut feeling measurement. I was again turnt to the world of scaling and how it can skew your data*. So, I returned to the trinary theory with some measurables.
The first thing I looked at was does the ability function like an existing card? And if so, does it do the function worse, the same, or better than that card? Because abilities are repeatable I wanted to make sure the good ones carried a higher value. So, I made the range go all the way up to seven.
The second part of the trinary is cost. The cheaper it is to use the more valuable.
The last value point is going to be somewhat controversial. I have a binary value between zero and five asking if the ability counts as removal. If yes, you get the full five. If not, you get nothing. You lose. Good day sir (or madam or they/them).
| Range | Value | |
| Function | Worse than Card | 2 |
| Same as Card | 4 | |
| Improved Card | 7 | |
| Cost | 2-3 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 | |
| 0 | 3 | |
| Is it Removal? | No | 0 |
| Yes | 5 |
Signature Follows Suit Plus One
After coming up with the metrics for abilities I felt pretty good about applying them almost directly to the signature cards. The only changes I made were lowering the removal value and adding a value for the signature being a ready spell. This represents signatures being less valuable because they can’t be played every round unless they are a ready spell.
There is a four-way tie for the best signature card in game between Hope, Jessa, Sembali, and Xander.
| Range | Value | |
| Function | Worse than Card | 2 |
| Same as Card | 4 | |
| Improved Card | 7 | |
| Cost | 2-3 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 | |
| 0 | 3 | |
| Is it Removal? | No | 0 |
| Is it Direct Damage? | Yes | 3 |
| Is it Ready Spell? | No | 0 |
| Yes | 2 |
The Heaviness of It All
While the above metrics work wonders I couldn’t in good conscience declare that the raw stats of a phoenixborn was equal to its ability. So, I added a weight mechanic to the total equation. I figured stats x1, abilities x3, and signature card x2. I wanted the signature cards to be worth less than abilities since you have to draw them outside of the first five. I also feel the raw stats of a phoenixborn are the least important thing about them. While a 20 life can edge out a win in some cases it’s the ability and signature card that are doing the most work.
The Play’s the Thing!
One of the things that keeps drawing me to card games is finding unusual interactions to gain aggregated advantages. I love Jungle Warrior with Guilt Link. It’s a cool combo. And works well in certain builds. But, it’s even better in Brennan. Reviewing the metrics in a vacuum can’t reveal perfect information about how a phoenixborn will perform. It does a great job as a guide but doesn’t give us the whole picture.
With Kaile Phelps permission I mined his databases for actual play results from the Ashes International League (AIL) and the Shufflebus leagues (SB). (circa June 2022)
I took each phoenixborn’s win percentage and converted it into the nearest whole number rounded up. I didn’t want to emphasize top eight finishes due to how AIL operates. Since you can change up phoenixborn it didn’t make sense to include that metric and I didn’t want SB to carry more weight than any other type of league. They are all equal and highlight different play styles. What I like about keeping track though is it may point out some differences between the styles and phoenixborn down the road.
Notice I didn’t choose to use the average of the two results. I want the win percentage to represent something larger than the whole of given statistics but not overwhelm the rankings. I feel that a range of 0-20 is a fair balance.
Unplayed phoenixborn suffer here as well as those unreleased. While this metric absolutely tanks Dimona, a surprising name pops to the top of one of the ranking lists. Saria has an 80 percent win rate in both AIL and SB. I suspect the more people play Saria the more that number comes down. But, folks slept on Meoni for a while before the right combination of cards was discovered.
What Did We Learn?
The biggest oddities are the phoenixborn who vacillate the most between similar rankings. Anything with five or greater differences is either pointing out the imperfection of the metrics OR a misunderstanding on how to play the phoenixborn itself.
Due to the current low sample size of performance it is a fool’s errand to make definitive assumptions on ranking versus performance. However, it is better to review all the data and point out any future inconsistencies. When more data becomes available I believe it will be the only comparisons that will be important. Right now the purest ranking available is the Weighted with Performance.
Weighted No Performance vs Weighted Performance OR the Problem with Noah
The only phoenixborn with a differential between rankings of more than five is Noah. And he under performs by seven ranks. Reviewing the number that I assigned to Noah I fully willing to admit they should be updated. But I wanted to point out how even with strict guidelines things can go awry. I rated his ability as ‘better than an existing card’. Which is not true.
There is one other card that exhausts a ready spellbook; Seal. In fact, Seal is a better ability because it completely wipes all the books in a stack. Just that missed interpretation puts Noah more inline with his performance level. His weighted numbers go to 34 and 38, which is only above Koji and Dimona respectively.
I don’t want to change the data just to get rid of an outlier but this might be a case worth revisiting next time. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think!
I think a differential of four is acceptable and mostly explainable for most phoenixborn.
Echo, Fiona, Leo, and Saria overperform by four ranks. Hope is the only underperformer. Looking at the unweighted numbers gives us a little more insight as to why this may be.
| Weighted Ranking with Performance | ||
| # | Pheonixborn | Tot |
| 1 | Aradel | 76 |
| 2 | Harold | 75 |
| 3 | Odette | 74 |
| 4 | Jessa | 72 |
| 5 | Lulu | 72 |
| 6 | Brennan | 71 |
| 7 | Meoni | 69 |
| 8 | Hope | 68 |
| 9 | Coal | 64 |
| 10 | Xander | 64 |
| 11 | Saria | 63 |
| 12 | Leo | 60 |
| 13 | Orrick | 59 |
| 14 | Echo | 58 |
| 15 | Rowan | 58 |
| 16 | Fiona | 56 |
| 17 | Sembali | 56 |
| 18 | Tristan | 56 |
| 19 | Rimea | 55 |
| 20 | James | 54 |
| 21 | Noah | 53 |
| 22 | Astrea | 49 |
| 23 | Namine | 49 |
| 24 | Jericho | 44 |
| 25 | Rin | 41 |
| 26 | Victoria | 39 |
| 27 | Koji | 38 |
| 28 | Dimona | 37 |
Unweighted No Performance vs Unweighted Performance
It is tempting to skip looking at the unweighted numbers. However I like having a basis not marred by the assumption that a phoenixborn ability isn’t more important than its raw stats. If nothing else it gets us a view of what things would look like if they were created equal.
Hope underperforms by nine ranks in their initial soiree into the Ashes competitive field. I actually expected something like this as a lot of folks will clamber towards something new without having a firm grasp on their strengths and weaknesses. I expect the ranks to get closer (we’re already seeing it in the second season of tournament play) as more time progresses.
Saria overperforms by eight (!) ranks. This means one of two things: A) The person that played her must be a pretty, pretty, pretty good player. [check the spreadsheet to find out who it is] B) I am vastly valuing Heart’s Pull? Only after a very limited run I foresee her numbers dropping.
Brennan overperforms by six ranks. I’m surprised it’s not by more. Her regular stats actually stink but her ability is sickenly good. I want to see the same cards get played with a different phoenixborn and see if an argument can be made for the cards. I believe Brennan uses them best but I also believe other phoenixborn can benefit from those same cards like Noah and Orrick.
Leo over performs by six ranks. When taken into account my personal feelings (something science shouldn’t account for and I will welcome the robot overlords) of Brennan being ranked too low. I think direct damage SHOULD get a bump in the metrics. Afterall, it is the goal of the game! I added some numbers with an asterisk next to them indicating where they would land with the reevaluation. EDIT: I have since recalibrated to include direct damage. So, the differential is somewhere else. I think it’s in the metrics not accounting for unit guard or a side action produce unit.
Rimea is overperforming by six ranks, see Saria above. I like Rimea and there is a lot that is unmeasurable going on here.
Finally Namine is overperforming by five ranks. I think we can solidly put this down as something unaccounted for by the metrics. For future testing I think repeatable effects that cancel other effects should be measured. Her signature card is nice but can be duplicated, just not as efficiently.
| Weighted Ranking without Performance | ||
| # | Pheonixborn | Tot |
| 1 | Aradel | 64 |
| 2 | Odette | 64 |
| 3 | Harold | 62 |
| 4 | Hope | 61 |
| 5 | Lulu | 61 |
| 6 | Jessa | 60 |
| 7 | Meoni | 59 |
| 8 | Brennan | 58 |
| 9 | Rowan | 58 |
| 10 | Tristan | 56 |
| 11 | Coal | 54 |
| 12 | Xander | 52 |
| 13 | Orrick | 51 |
| 14 | Noah | 49 |
| 15 | Saria | 48 |
| 16 | Leo | 47 |
| 17 | Sembali | 47 |
| 18 | Echo | 46 |
| 19 | James | 45 |
| 20 | Fiona | 44 |
| 21 | Rimea | 43 |
| 22 | Astrea | 41 |
| 23 | Jericho | 39 |
| 24 | Namine | 38 |
| 25 | Dimona | 37 |
| 26 | Victoria | 35 |
| 27 | Rin | 34 |
| 28 | Koji | 31 |
Last Round
Looking at the numbers it looks like Rowan and Tristan are pre-destined to live just inside the top ten. As with any phoenixborn, getting them together with the right cards and pilot will ultimately decide their fate. Tristan feels the most straight forward jamming out swarms for his massive nine battlefield. Higher floor and lower ceiling.
Rowan is special. As of this writing we don’t know what the chimera summons is going to be. But it doesn’t matter. It doesn’t affect how he is scored. He’s already getting top scores for signature card removal. Rowan’s floor is much lower but with an almost unlimited ceiling.
If you want crazy hot takes here ya go. “Rowan will be the cause of more chains due to his ability to facilitate combo.” This may be more of an inditement of Knowledge Seeker but if nothing else, I am excited to see what the new cards bring! See you on the digital battlefield, heyo and gl!
Other Odds and Ends
So far Hope hasn’t lived up to the hype performance wise but I also think it’s early.
Did you know Aradel and Noah are very similar? They are the only phoenixborn with a battlefield over six AND boast a solid four spell slots. They also possess above average abilities with a signature card that rarely sees play in tournament successful decks. Because of this I predict a Noah Zoo Keeper should have excellent results. [Spoiler alert, it did not. I went 0-5. I really want to emphasize, blame the pilot not the deck! Noah is a special creature that needs his own essay.]
Coal and Odette have astoundingly numeric doppelgangers when it comes to their abilities. However, Odette has a clear ranking advantage in almost every category except for performance. Overall, is Coal underperforming in comparison?
Before any further data is created with Dimona and Hope it appears Hope is a top echelon and Dimona is a basement dweller. I honestly think Dimona will be the more dominant deck.[Ooof, not yet!] But, if this has taught us anything there is a knowledge gap in how to build and play ally heavy swing decks. Echo, Koji, and Sembali all favor allies and all trend towards the bottom. Echo being the best with a 50 percent win rate.
I honestly believe Sembali and Noah are being completely misunderstood on two different levels. Either the metrics are wonky or something else. Something more intriguing. I believe there is something completely unaccounted for unlike any of the other metrics. Someone prove me right or wrong when it comes to these two. I have won a lot of casual games with both of them but seem to fall short in competitive matches.
* Thanks Schmedrix! For teaching me scaling, it’s a thing.
** A big thank you to Kaile Phelps. Your contribution to gaming science cannot be ignored!
*** A heartfelt thanks goes out to the Got ‘Em to One gang for listening to my ideas and guiding the metrics!
About the Author
Jerod Leupold has been an avid gamer and advocate for over 30 years. He cut his teeth on the business side by founding and running Critical Hit Games in Iowa City for eight years before selling to excellent stewards. Now that he has time to take things like vacations, he amuses himself by using his English degree and journalism background talking about game theory. He has been published under the Gamenomicon franchise for Party First RPG adventures and sourcebooks. As well as several articles about A Game of Thrones CCG and LCG back in the day. While he’s never hoisted a grand champion trophy, he has been an innovator and bride’s maid an innumerable number of times. Follow Jerod at Paroxysm by Design on facebook, itch.io, or drivethru RPG!