Hard 30 – Meta-tations: Card Draw Part I of IV*
Amongst the hallowed halls of the card gaming community there is an adage; Inténde Ergo Vincere. While we understand drawing cards doesn’t literally salt away a victory it does lead to more options. The more options you have means the more threats to attack your opponent. The more threats you have leads to overwhelming your opponent. Therefore, more win. So, how come that sentiment doesn’t reverberate with the Ashes community?
Why is Drawing Cards Less Awesome in Ashes?
Part of the answer is variability beyond the first five. Unlike any other game, players begin with exactly the hand they want. Usually entailing a tight knit play line using all ten available resource dice. Even if you have left over dice you still aren’t guaranteed to be able to play any extra drawn card. It can either cost too many dice OR be the wrong magic type.
Both scenarios equal a waste of resources used to pay for drawing the card. It only makes sense to draw cards in one case. If you have the same amount or more of open dice equal to the average card cost of your deck. Most decks can’t handle that kind of output.
Another issue is tied to scarcity of resources. In order to draw a card you have to spend dice. The same dice you had previously available to pay for a card. It’s incredibly counter productive to earmark dice to spend on card drawing effects that are better used to pay for a card in hand. With only ten dice available a round most decks eat through those with tasty conjurations and reactions.
There is also a point of pointlessness. At the end of every round you get a reload of five new cards. It even has a built-in sifting mechanic to discard unwanted leftovers. In games with a lower draw cap every turn it becomes much more valuable to double up on available cards. It feels bad to cash out using a resource for some thing that you were going to get; for FREE.
Finally, card draw gets you closer to decking yourself. That in and of itself is no big deal. However Ashes has fatigue damage and drawing into more cards may be a long term disaster. Especially if your opponent’s plan is relying on mill as a win condition.
So why in the world would anyone even want to draw cards?!
Why is Draw Good?
No matter the game, having more options to spring against your opponent is good. Greedily stockpiling cards in hand is terrible. Having a well thought out game plan is fantastic. Here’s some numbers to get a sense of what we are talking about.
An Ashes deck is 25 cards after the first five. Every remaining card represents four percent of your deck. Let’s say you are digging for one of three cards. The first drawn card gives you 12 percent odds. The second card you draw (rounding up) has a 13 percent chance. Not earth shattering but a puncher’s chance of being a top deck hero.
Round two is where most folks count on their area of effect removal or bomb combo peices. Let’s say you didn’t have any extra draw round one. But, you didn’t draw your trio of fancy tech. There are now 20 cards left in your deck. The first drawn card is a cool 15 percent. Followed up by a second draw of 16 percent.
If we extrapolate draw into the first five of, let’s say, two cards. You are dipping into 17 percent territory on the first card and 18 percent for the second. Things are a lot more spicy in this range. So, how do we get draw to work for us?
Know Your Average and Lean Into It
In the Beyond the First Five part I article I walk through how to calculate your deck’s average. The sum of it; figure out your open dice by subtracting the cost of all repeatable ready spells and abilities you want to use every round from ten. Then, divide that number by the number of cards you want to play each round.
It is important to realize more cards doesn’t necessarily make better cards. Your average cost of cards is going to be lower than most decks. The lower cost cards usually pack a less powerful punch. A 2/1 attack and life impact is much smaller than a 3/4. However, three of those same 2/1s for the same cost of the 3/4 is often the better deal provided you have the battlefield space. Two 2/1s can usually pull equal weight in most situations.
Even if you have a low average cost of cards it still doesn’t mean you should pack in the draw. You also have to build a deck with less repeatable effects. Meaning you are relying much less on expensive ready spell triggers. Initial costs are fine. We are only looking at the trigger cost. This results in more open dice to pay for cards. And leaves you susceptible to card variance.
Department of the Same Cards and Redundancy
In order for card draw to really work you have to have an idea of what the deck is doing. And then hammer that point home with as many of the same effects on different cards as possible. It doesn’t matter if it’s a ready spell, reaction, or an ally. Consistency is one of the ways a winning deck can rely on extra cards.
When combining redundancy with draw your percentages start hitting very favorable outcomes. Digging for six or nine answers grows to a whopping 24 percent or a staggering 36 percent on one draw. These numbers are all based on drawing them on round one. Round two, provided you drew two cards round one AND didn’t pull into any of the cards with the regular draw, is 33 percent and 50 percent respectively.
Variety is the Spice of Life
Sprinkling in silver bullets for certain matchups is usually a bad idea. Either they are useless in most game states or you simply don’t draw them. Without draw, a dead card in hand represents 20 percent of your hand. However, if you have drawn two cards for the turn it goes down to 14 percent. It is less of a detriment to your round of play if you dilute the dead cards.
I haven’t quite mastered the art of the silver bullet special but I think I’ve convinced myself it could work. We’ve already seen the idea of a pile of good cards in action. Card draw bolsters that design quite a bit. Allowing the deck builder some more esoteric combinations.
Concluding With Incidental Benefits
I have found including draw with deck building incredibly enriching. It doesn’t go in every deck but it certainly expands the horizons of what I previously thought possible. I have a whole line of decks titled ‘7 out’ based on the theory of playing seven cards a round. My first Jessa deck I have ever built has an extremely high win percentage thanks to supplemental draw. I have a new goal of ‘Pile of Situationally Good Cards’. I wouldn’t have taken this journey without asking myself if card draw was any good.
My favorite side effect from card draw is avoiding the dreaded meditation off the top of the deck. I’m currently exploring x3 books just for funzies. And there is nothing I hate more than flipping away a ready spell or some signature card into the pile. I hear you might lose a championship that way. If that isn’t a ringing endorsement for drawing extra cards, I don’t know what is. Heyo and gl!
*This is part I of IV
Part I Digging for Answers, reviewing pros and cons of card draw
Part II Top Deck Hero, how to integrate draw into a deck
Part III Good Draw, Bad Draw, grading every draw card
Part IV Seven Out Chimera, examples of card draw decks